After veto, Russia works for ‘peace’ in Syria

Austin Baragary- Beyond the Hill Editor
2/10/12

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria may soon begin negotiating with resistance groups in his country, thanks to efforts by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov. After partnering with China to veto a U.N. Security Council resolution against Syria, Russia has moved to ease tensions by prompting al-Assad to agree to negotiations with anti-Assad forces. According to Dr. Alan Holiman, professor of political science, it is in Russia’s interests to maintain the al-Assad regime.
“After watching what’s been going on in the Middle East, [Vladimir] Putin [the Russian Prime Minister], wants to make sure that he won’t lose power,” Holiman said. “If he can prevent one more regime from falling, then it’s likely that he’ll retain power.”
According to the New York Times, China’s veto was made for similar reasons.
Just days after the resolution was vetoed by the Security Council, many Western nations began to pull diplomats from their Syrian embassies. This, Holiman said, is a serious move meant to communicate displeasure with the Syrian government.
“It is a sign of serious concern,” Holiman said. “Pulling ambassadors is a serious diplomatic move that’s on the road to non-recognition of statehood. But, will the Assad regime take it seriously? No. I don’t think that move will prompt them to change anything.”
The reforms for which Russia is supposedly pushing likely will not be substantial, either. Nor would other players in the region want for there to be substantial change. After watching many other governments fall, Holiman believes that Iran will want to maintain the Assad regime to prevent the Arab Spring from becoming a Persian Spring in 2012.
The Syrian protesters, though, may not necessarily want a significant set of political reforms. According to the New York Times, many have a “rule or die” mindset. In other words, they simply want someone who represents the majority of Syria, which is 90 percent Shia, rather than a minority (Assad is an Alawite Muslim, a branch of Sunni Islam that comprises about 10 percent of the Syrian population).
Holiman, though, said that Assad will not go anywhere willingly.
“There won’t be any reforms to damage the Assad regime’s power,” Holiman said. “If they [the Syrians] want a new leader and system, then the young Democrats will have to  push for a democratic government like they have been doing.”